Tag Archives: Turkey

Negotiate with ISIS? Lessons from Arsal, Lebanon

In at least two instances, negotiations with the Islamic State led to significant results: the withdrawal of militants from the Lebanese town of Arsal and the under-reported liberation in early July of 46 Indian nurses in Iraq (Mosul).

What are these two cases telling us about ISIS? Can it be inferred that negotiations with the group are an option

Arsal

On August 2nd , ISIS launched an offensive on the city of Arsal[1] following the arrest by Lebanese security forces of Imad Ahmed Joumaa, a Jihadist who had recently pledged allegiance to the Islamic State.

arsal view

ISIS was apparently in a position of strength – the militants took over the city in a blitzkrieg-style attack within a few hours and were later joined by Jabhat al Nusra. They were however strategically vulnerable, surrounded by the Lebanese army in a Hezbollah-dominated area, the Bekaa Valley.

map arsal

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The Islamic State – The Incarnation of Jihad

In the following special report, we discuss the main questions regarding the Islamic State (IS) including: its rooting in the region, the solidity of local alliances, the seriousness of the Caliphate reinstatement and its governance agenda. Based on this analysis, we suggest a number of pointers for potential action.

 IS flag

For more information about NGC services – political analysis, risk assessment and strategic advice – please contact us @ info@new-gen-consulting.com. Continue reading

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Lebanon – Threats and Risks Assessment

shattered flag 2With each new explosion, the Media and institutions of the international community warn of the risk of yet another civil war in Lebanon. A number of internal and regional factors are cited each time: the intensification of terrorist activity, the ongoing political vacuum, the opening of the Special Tribunal for Lebanon (STL), spill-over effects from the Syrian crisis, a massive influx of Syrian refugees…

The picture is indeed quite grim. However, not all factors carry equal weight and significance. In this new special report on Lebanon, NGC intends to analyse and rank the various terrorist threats and other risk factors, and outline possible future scenarios. Continue reading

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Shiite Foreign Fighters in Syria: Facts, Narratives and Regional Impact

shia militiamen with basharSince spring 2013, a number of convergent signs indicate that a significant number of seasoned Shiite fighters from Iraq are crossing the borders into Syria to fight alongside the regime. This latest development comes in the context of mounting pressure on the capacity of the Syrian army (1), and limitations to the involvement of the Lebanese Hezbollah in Syria.

This article aims to shed light on this recent phenomenon, the corresponding realities on the ground as well as the religious and historical narratives underpinning it. It concludes by touching on the potential impacts of such a development and its significance for the future of the region. Continue reading

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NGC on BBC about Hezbollah and the Nuclear Deal

BBC Arabic asked NGC Director to discuss potential contacts between the US and Hezbollah, as well as Hezbollah’s positioning following the nuclear interim agreement between Iran and the P5+1.

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The Syrian Armed Opposition – Balance of Power, Tactical Goals and Long Term Agenda

ISIS with child

ISIS Fighters

NGC is very pleased to announce that Romain Caillet, a French researcher specialized in Islamist movements, has joined our team. Romain brings along his precious expertise on Salafist and Jihadist movements, the Syrian civil war and more generally on the Sunni/Shia relation in the Arab world. Find out more about him on our website.

NGC sat with Romain to discuss the status of the armed opposition to the Syrian regime, and try to identify:

(1)     The current balance of power between the different groups,

(2)     Their tactical and long-term goals as well as potential future scenarios

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Remarks on the Legality of Potential Strikes on Syria

un-flag-square With the procrastination of military action and national parliaments’ growing involvement, debates over the legality, legitimacy and efficiency of potential strikes against the Syrian regime are getting increasingly polarized.

In that context, we would like to share a set of arguments regarding the issue of the legality of  an intervention in the face of UN Security Council’s paralysis. Continue reading

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NGC Special Report – Making Sense of Brazilian Protests

Dancing Shadows on the Brazilian Congress

Dancing Shadows on the Brazilian Congress

NGC is proud to share with you its latest Special Report on the protests in Brazil.

We happened to be in Sao Paulo in June 2013 for a month-long research mission, when the protests against the bus fare hike broke out.

We decided to try to make sense of this historical upheaval, mobilizing our two-year experience in the field of Public Healthcare in a favela of Rio and interviewing Brazilians from the Public, Private and Third-sector Organizations in Sao Paulo, Rio and Brasilia.

This report is but a small contribution to a larger discussion that is just beginning, let us know your thoughts and share with us your analysis!

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Syria – Update from the Front

Hafez falling

Hafez falling in Raqaa

In the North and the East

Roughly speaking, the North is starting to get closer to a liberated zone and signs of a new Syria are emerging, especially in Aleppo. Most of the border with Turkey is controlled by the rebels (mainly al Farouk brigade) who have recently focused on more strategic targets (bigger cities, airports, military bases…). But that does not mean that these are stable and safe areas. Continue reading

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Did you know that the last Brazilian Emperor was a passionate Orientalist?

dom-pedro-PortraitThe 19th century’s official history was and remains too Eurocentric to notice the greatness of a non-European statesman and its sincere interest in other cultures, notably Oriental cultures.

In many ways, Pedro the Second, Emperor of Brazil (Rio, 1825- Paris, 1891), embodied the Enlightenment’s ideal of a humanist leader.

He was as fair and principled as Saint Luis, as cultured and enlightened as Frederic II of Prussia, and as unhappy on the throne as a true intellectual and adventurer could be. He had the most romantic death: in exile in Paris, poor and lonely.

His 58 year old reign transformed Brazil into a prosperous country with a liberal parliamentary monarchy. What’s more, he was a true abolitionist. In 1850, he even threatened to abdicate unless the Brazilian General Assembly declared the Atlantic slave trade illegal, and then fought to end the enslavement of children born of slaves (the “Law of the Free Birth” 1871). Continue reading

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