Tag Archives: Jihad

Lebanon Risks and Threats Analysis 2

Tanks in Tripoli will do little to solve  the political crisis

Tanks in Tripoli will do little to solve the political crisis

Following our previous report (February 204), we have drafted a new evaluation of the current situation in Lebanon. In the following special report, we examine the evolution of the terrorist threat, the tensions caused by the Syrian refugee influx and the elements of resilience within the country. We conclude with a number of political recommendations.

To download the PDF version, click here.

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Negotiate with ISIS? Lessons from Arsal, Lebanon

In at least two instances, negotiations with the Islamic State led to significant results: the withdrawal of militants from the Lebanese town of Arsal and the under-reported liberation in early July of 46 Indian nurses in Iraq (Mosul).

What are these two cases telling us about ISIS? Can it be inferred that negotiations with the group are an option

Arsal

On August 2nd , ISIS launched an offensive on the city of Arsal[1] following the arrest by Lebanese security forces of Imad Ahmed Joumaa, a Jihadist who had recently pledged allegiance to the Islamic State.

arsal view

ISIS was apparently in a position of strength – the militants took over the city in a blitzkrieg-style attack within a few hours and were later joined by Jabhat al Nusra. They were however strategically vulnerable, surrounded by the Lebanese army in a Hezbollah-dominated area, the Bekaa Valley.

map arsal

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The Crusader, the Moor, and the Conquistador

Through our research on Latino-Arab relations, we discovered that both continents and cultures have actually much older ties than we thought.

In the following publication, we explore how the confrontation with medieval Islam in Spain shaped the mentalities and actions of the Conquistadores in the Americas.

1492, annus mirabilis – a year of  miracles – at least for the Iberian Christians.

That year, Isabella and Ferdinand, the Christian Monarchs, put an end to the long cycle of the Spanish Reconquista,[1] with the surrender of the last Caliph of Granada. They also expelled the Jews and launched the Conquista of the “Indies”- what was to become the Americas.

The farewells of King Boabdil at Granada, Alfred Dehodencq (1822-1882). The spot from which Muhammad XII looked for the last time on Granada is known as "the Moor's last sigh".

The farewells of King Boabdil at Granada, Alfred Dehodencq (1822-1882). The spot from which Muhammad XII looked for the last time on Granada is known as “the Moor’s last sigh”.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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The Islamic State – The Incarnation of Jihad

In the following special report, we discuss the main questions regarding the Islamic State (IS) including: its rooting in the region, the solidity of local alliances, the seriousness of the Caliphate reinstatement and its governance agenda. Based on this analysis, we suggest a number of pointers for potential action.

 IS flag

For more information about NGC services – political analysis, risk assessment and strategic advice – please contact us @ info@new-gen-consulting.com. Continue reading

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Lebanon – Threats and Risks Assessment

shattered flag 2With each new explosion, the Media and institutions of the international community warn of the risk of yet another civil war in Lebanon. A number of internal and regional factors are cited each time: the intensification of terrorist activity, the ongoing political vacuum, the opening of the Special Tribunal for Lebanon (STL), spill-over effects from the Syrian crisis, a massive influx of Syrian refugees…

The picture is indeed quite grim. However, not all factors carry equal weight and significance. In this new special report on Lebanon, NGC intends to analyse and rank the various terrorist threats and other risk factors, and outline possible future scenarios. Continue reading

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Shiite Foreign Fighters in Syria: Facts, Narratives and Regional Impact

shia militiamen with basharSince spring 2013, a number of convergent signs indicate that a significant number of seasoned Shiite fighters from Iraq are crossing the borders into Syria to fight alongside the regime. This latest development comes in the context of mounting pressure on the capacity of the Syrian army (1), and limitations to the involvement of the Lebanese Hezbollah in Syria.

This article aims to shed light on this recent phenomenon, the corresponding realities on the ground as well as the religious and historical narratives underpinning it. It concludes by touching on the potential impacts of such a development and its significance for the future of the region. Continue reading

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The Syrian Armed Opposition – Balance of Power, Tactical Goals and Long Term Agenda

ISIS with child

ISIS Fighters

NGC is very pleased to announce that Romain Caillet, a French researcher specialized in Islamist movements, has joined our team. Romain brings along his precious expertise on Salafist and Jihadist movements, the Syrian civil war and more generally on the Sunni/Shia relation in the Arab world. Find out more about him on our website.

NGC sat with Romain to discuss the status of the armed opposition to the Syrian regime, and try to identify:

(1)     The current balance of power between the different groups,

(2)     Their tactical and long-term goals as well as potential future scenarios

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