Tag Archives: hezbollah

Lebanon Risks and Threats Analysis 2

Tanks in Tripoli will do little to solve  the political crisis

Tanks in Tripoli will do little to solve the political crisis

Following our previous report (February 204), we have drafted a new evaluation of the current situation in Lebanon. In the following special report, we examine the evolution of the terrorist threat, the tensions caused by the Syrian refugee influx and the elements of resilience within the country. We conclude with a number of political recommendations.

To download the PDF version, click here.

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Negotiate with ISIS? Lessons from Arsal, Lebanon

In at least two instances, negotiations with the Islamic State led to significant results: the withdrawal of militants from the Lebanese town of Arsal and the under-reported liberation in early July of 46 Indian nurses in Iraq (Mosul).

What are these two cases telling us about ISIS? Can it be inferred that negotiations with the group are an option

Arsal

On August 2nd , ISIS launched an offensive on the city of Arsal[1] following the arrest by Lebanese security forces of Imad Ahmed Joumaa, a Jihadist who had recently pledged allegiance to the Islamic State.

arsal view

ISIS was apparently in a position of strength – the militants took over the city in a blitzkrieg-style attack within a few hours and were later joined by Jabhat al Nusra. They were however strategically vulnerable, surrounded by the Lebanese army in a Hezbollah-dominated area, the Bekaa Valley.

map arsal

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Lebanon – Threats and Risks Assessment

shattered flag 2With each new explosion, the Media and institutions of the international community warn of the risk of yet another civil war in Lebanon. A number of internal and regional factors are cited each time: the intensification of terrorist activity, the ongoing political vacuum, the opening of the Special Tribunal for Lebanon (STL), spill-over effects from the Syrian crisis, a massive influx of Syrian refugees…

The picture is indeed quite grim. However, not all factors carry equal weight and significance. In this new special report on Lebanon, NGC intends to analyse and rank the various terrorist threats and other risk factors, and outline possible future scenarios. Continue reading

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Shiite Foreign Fighters in Syria: Facts, Narratives and Regional Impact

shia militiamen with basharSince spring 2013, a number of convergent signs indicate that a significant number of seasoned Shiite fighters from Iraq are crossing the borders into Syria to fight alongside the regime. This latest development comes in the context of mounting pressure on the capacity of the Syrian army (1), and limitations to the involvement of the Lebanese Hezbollah in Syria.

This article aims to shed light on this recent phenomenon, the corresponding realities on the ground as well as the religious and historical narratives underpinning it. It concludes by touching on the potential impacts of such a development and its significance for the future of the region. Continue reading

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NGC on BBC about Hezbollah and the Nuclear Deal

BBC Arabic asked NGC Director to discuss potential contacts between the US and Hezbollah, as well as Hezbollah’s positioning following the nuclear interim agreement between Iran and the P5+1.

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The Syrian Armed Opposition – Balance of Power, Tactical Goals and Long Term Agenda

ISIS with child

ISIS Fighters

NGC is very pleased to announce that Romain Caillet, a French researcher specialized in Islamist movements, has joined our team. Romain brings along his precious expertise on Salafist and Jihadist movements, the Syrian civil war and more generally on the Sunni/Shia relation in the Arab world. Find out more about him on our website.

NGC sat with Romain to discuss the status of the armed opposition to the Syrian regime, and try to identify:

(1)     The current balance of power between the different groups,

(2)     Their tactical and long-term goals as well as potential future scenarios

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NGC on BBC Arabic about Hezbollah’s Involvement in Syria

BBC Arabic reached out again to us on the sensitive question of Hezbollah’s military involvement in the battle of Al Quseir, a Syrian town (25 000 inhabitants) a few kilometers away from the Lebanese border. Over the past week, intense fighting has been reported around the town, between the rebels holding the city and the Syrian army supported by Hezbollah. al Quseir map small

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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BBC interviews NGC on Hezbollah

hezbollah-flagOn February 6, BBC world asked NGC Director to participate from Beirut in the live radio program “Have your say” to discuss whether Hezbollah should be branded  a terrorist organization by the EU following the Bulgarian accusations implicating Hezbollah in the Burgas bombing.

The debate gathered other experts, including Anthony Glees, a security expert at the University of Bukcingham, Claude Moniquet, Director of the European Strategic Intelligence and Security Center, as well as Davis Lewin, political director at the Henry Jackson Society.  To listen to the full debate, click here.

BBC Arabic (TV) also asked NGC Director to explain the French position regarding Hezbollah and the reasons for its opposition to adding  the Lebanese party to the EU terrorist list. to view the interview, click here.

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