Tag Archives: Free Syrian Army

Lebanon – Threats and Risks Assessment

shattered flag 2With each new explosion, the Media and institutions of the international community warn of the risk of yet another civil war in Lebanon. A number of internal and regional factors are cited each time: the intensification of terrorist activity, the ongoing political vacuum, the opening of the Special Tribunal for Lebanon (STL), spill-over effects from the Syrian crisis, a massive influx of Syrian refugees…

The picture is indeed quite grim. However, not all factors carry equal weight and significance. In this new special report on Lebanon, NGC intends to analyse and rank the various terrorist threats and other risk factors, and outline possible future scenarios. Continue reading

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The Syrian Armed Opposition – Balance of Power, Tactical Goals and Long Term Agenda

ISIS with child

ISIS Fighters

NGC is very pleased to announce that Romain Caillet, a French researcher specialized in Islamist movements, has joined our team. Romain brings along his precious expertise on Salafist and Jihadist movements, the Syrian civil war and more generally on the Sunni/Shia relation in the Arab world. Find out more about him on our website.

NGC sat with Romain to discuss the status of the armed opposition to the Syrian regime, and try to identify:

(1)     The current balance of power between the different groups,

(2)     Their tactical and long-term goals as well as potential future scenarios

Continue reading

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New Publication on the Syrian Conflict

Pas de printemps JPEGWe are very proud to anounce the publication by La Decouverte Editions  in French of “Pas de printemps pour la Syrie – Les clés  pour comprendre les acteurs et les défis de la crise, 2011-2013” (“Won’t there be a Syrian Spring? Keys to understand the players and the challenges of the crisis (2011-2013)”) under the supervision of the French Institute of the Near East (IFPO).

This collective work brings together the contributions of more than 20 experts among the best connoisseurs of the Middle East and Syria. NGC Director, Janaina Herrera contributed by bringing a unique expertise on the Syro-Lebanese diaspora in Latin America and its positioning vis a vis the Syrian crisis. For a detailed table of contents and list of authors (in French), click here.

Focusing on information collected as close to the source as possible, this important book highlights the historical roots of the crisis, analyzes the issues at stake and scrutinizes its political, economic and ideological implications.

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NGC on BBC Arabic about Hezbollah’s Involvement in Syria

BBC Arabic reached out again to us on the sensitive question of Hezbollah’s military involvement in the battle of Al Quseir, a Syrian town (25 000 inhabitants) a few kilometers away from the Lebanese border. Over the past week, intense fighting has been reported around the town, between the rebels holding the city and the Syrian army supported by Hezbollah. al Quseir map small

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Syria – Update from the Front

Hafez falling

Hafez falling in Raqaa

In the North and the East

Roughly speaking, the North is starting to get closer to a liberated zone and signs of a new Syria are emerging, especially in Aleppo. Most of the border with Turkey is controlled by the rebels (mainly al Farouk brigade) who have recently focused on more strategic targets (bigger cities, airports, military bases…). But that does not mean that these are stable and safe areas. Continue reading

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NGC’s Publication in Les Carnets de l’Ifpo

NGC and the French Institute for the Near East (IFPO), a unique research center based in Syria, Lebanon, Jordan and Palestine, have started an informal collaboration to debate and share knowledge and analysis on the Middle East.

The IFPO is a French public research institution gathering researchers in three different departments: Contemporary Studies, Arab Medieval and Modern Studies, Archeology and History of Antiquity.

In this context, the IFPO published in its latest electronic issue NGC’s article on the Syrian crisis seen from South America (Venezuela, Brazil, and Argentina). Continue reading

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Empower the Free Syrian Army

“We ask the inhabitants of March to save us from the people of Earth” , a plea from the people of Dael in Daraa, Syria, 12 Juillet 2012

Over the past 18 months of the Syrian conflict, experts had plenty of time to discuss options for international action in Syria, including:

1.  A UN peace-keeping mission

2. A buffer zone in Syria

3. A no-fly zone

4. Arming the Free Syrian Army Continue reading

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Interview with opponents to the Syrian regime

NGC had the opportunity to meet with people directly involved or in touch with key actors of the Syrian revolution on the ground to discuss current status of the Syrian conflict, its international aspects and the potential scenarios for the coming months.

We first tried to get a clearer idea of the balance of power on the ground. Many observers believe Syria is sinking into a long lasting Lebanese-style civil war with a regime still strong and ready to fight until the bitter end an opposition growing more violent and religious day by day. Continue reading

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