Tag Archives: Alawite

Lebanon Risks and Threats Analysis 2

Tanks in Tripoli will do little to solve  the political crisis

Tanks in Tripoli will do little to solve the political crisis

Following our previous report (February 204), we have drafted a new evaluation of the current situation in Lebanon. In the following special report, we examine the evolution of the terrorist threat, the tensions caused by the Syrian refugee influx and the elements of resilience within the country. We conclude with a number of political recommendations.

To download the PDF version, click here.

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The Syrian-Lebanese Diasporas in Latin America and the Syrian Conflict

VENEZUELA-SYRIA-CHAVEZ-ASSAD

Finally! Our Research on the Politicization of the Syrian-Lebanese Diasporas in Latin America is available in English.

In the following report, we examine the politicization paths of the Syrian-Lebanese Diasporas in the context of the Syrian conflict, shedding the light on these little-known communities in Venezuela, Brazil and Argentina.

We analyse, in particular, the different reasons why these communities overwhelmingly support the Syrian regime: anti-Imperialism, solidarity with the Eastern Christians and influence of an ancient Alawite community in Argentina.

This research was published in the French book “Pas de Printemps pour la Syrie”, La Découverte, December 2013.  We would like to express our appreciation to Pol O Beaglaoich for translating our work. Check our report on our website.

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Shiite Foreign Fighters in Syria: Facts, Narratives and Regional Impact

shia militiamen with basharSince spring 2013, a number of convergent signs indicate that a significant number of seasoned Shiite fighters from Iraq are crossing the borders into Syria to fight alongside the regime. This latest development comes in the context of mounting pressure on the capacity of the Syrian army (1), and limitations to the involvement of the Lebanese Hezbollah in Syria.

This article aims to shed light on this recent phenomenon, the corresponding realities on the ground as well as the religious and historical narratives underpinning it. It concludes by touching on the potential impacts of such a development and its significance for the future of the region. Continue reading

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The Syrian Armed Opposition – Balance of Power, Tactical Goals and Long Term Agenda

ISIS with child

ISIS Fighters

NGC is very pleased to announce that Romain Caillet, a French researcher specialized in Islamist movements, has joined our team. Romain brings along his precious expertise on Salafist and Jihadist movements, the Syrian civil war and more generally on the Sunni/Shia relation in the Arab world. Find out more about him on our website.

NGC sat with Romain to discuss the status of the armed opposition to the Syrian regime, and try to identify:

(1)     The current balance of power between the different groups,

(2)     Their tactical and long-term goals as well as potential future scenarios

Continue reading

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New Publication on the Syrian Conflict

Pas de printemps JPEGWe are very proud to anounce the publication by La Decouverte Editions  in French of “Pas de printemps pour la Syrie – Les clés  pour comprendre les acteurs et les défis de la crise, 2011-2013” (“Won’t there be a Syrian Spring? Keys to understand the players and the challenges of the crisis (2011-2013)”) under the supervision of the French Institute of the Near East (IFPO).

This collective work brings together the contributions of more than 20 experts among the best connoisseurs of the Middle East and Syria. NGC Director, Janaina Herrera contributed by bringing a unique expertise on the Syro-Lebanese diaspora in Latin America and its positioning vis a vis the Syrian crisis. For a detailed table of contents and list of authors (in French), click here.

Focusing on information collected as close to the source as possible, this important book highlights the historical roots of the crisis, analyzes the issues at stake and scrutinizes its political, economic and ideological implications.

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NGC on BBC Arabic about Hezbollah’s Involvement in Syria

BBC Arabic reached out again to us on the sensitive question of Hezbollah’s military involvement in the battle of Al Quseir, a Syrian town (25 000 inhabitants) a few kilometers away from the Lebanese border. Over the past week, intense fighting has been reported around the town, between the rebels holding the city and the Syrian army supported by Hezbollah. al Quseir map small

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Syria – Update from the Front

Hafez falling

Hafez falling in Raqaa

In the North and the East

Roughly speaking, the North is starting to get closer to a liberated zone and signs of a new Syria are emerging, especially in Aleppo. Most of the border with Turkey is controlled by the rebels (mainly al Farouk brigade) who have recently focused on more strategic targets (bigger cities, airports, military bases…). But that does not mean that these are stable and safe areas. Continue reading

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NGC’s Publication in Les Carnets de l’Ifpo

NGC and the French Institute for the Near East (IFPO), a unique research center based in Syria, Lebanon, Jordan and Palestine, have started an informal collaboration to debate and share knowledge and analysis on the Middle East.

The IFPO is a French public research institution gathering researchers in three different departments: Contemporary Studies, Arab Medieval and Modern Studies, Archeology and History of Antiquity.

In this context, the IFPO published in its latest electronic issue NGC’s article on the Syrian crisis seen from South America (Venezuela, Brazil, and Argentina). Continue reading

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Interview with opponents to the Syrian regime

NGC had the opportunity to meet with people directly involved or in touch with key actors of the Syrian revolution on the ground to discuss current status of the Syrian conflict, its international aspects and the potential scenarios for the coming months.

We first tried to get a clearer idea of the balance of power on the ground. Many observers believe Syria is sinking into a long lasting Lebanese-style civil war with a regime still strong and ready to fight until the bitter end an opposition growing more violent and religious day by day. Continue reading

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